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Liberty ‘Ruyi
The debate, for and against the choice of the ruling All Progressives Congress to field a Muslim-Muslim ticket ahead of the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria has been one expectedly fueled by interests, either of politics or emotions. While politicians look at elections from the lens of votes, the none politicians perceive them from the point of morality, and of course, politics and morality are hardly compatible, hence, the conflict of ideology between partisan politics and socio-cultural and religious intellectualism.
When the Peoples Democratic Party resolved to throw their Presidential ticket open, it was on the basis that the majority of its stakeholders believe that to wrestle power from the ruling All Progressives Congress, it was reasonable to pick a flag bearer from the North which commands high population of the votes. The calculation was simply to get a Northern Muslim with a widespread network and huge net worth to appeal to the sentiment of voters in the APC-controlled North while leveraging on the strength of the PDP in the South-South and South-East geopolitical zones of the country. It is a well-thought-out calculation that is capable of guaranteeing victory for the party.
As beautiful as Atiku’s choice is in achieving victory for the PDP, it has come with serious consequences as those opposed to power remaining in the North after President Muhammadu Buhari’s eighth years have since gone haywire. Today, the threat of losing the support of most PDP southern governors including Nyesom Wike, Seyi Makinde, Samuel Ortom, Ifeanyi Ugwanyi, Okezie Ikpeazu, and former Governor Ayodele Fayose is almost certain. It has become a case of “consolidating the Northern majority and harnessing what’s possible from the South”.
Like Chess, the last move of your opponent determines your next move. You don’t play the game in isolation. You must understand the move and anticipated steps of your opponent to move your Pones while protecting your King. In this scenario, the PDP moved first to dominate the Muslim-populated North by appealing to their sentiment with Atiku Abubakar who happens to be a Northern Muslim. It was now clear enough that Bola Tinubu though a Muslim, coming from the South, can not beat Atiku in the Muslim-populated North. Atiku was to smile to the bank if Tinubu fields a Northern minority Christian since the Christian South has never pitched a tent with the APC.
With Peter Obi of the Labour Party distorting the traditional order, coupled with the indifference of PDP governors from the South, the PDP-dominated South-South and the South-East are no longer a haven for the party. Therefore, Atiku will be hammering the North harder to produce more votes. On the other hand, Tinubu, though from the South, can only be certain of the South-West with maximum disturbance by Peter Obi in Lagos. Hence, to completely bend to the religious sentiment of picking a Christian running mate will honestly mean donating the North to Atiku.
In a winning political calculation, politicians do not seek to please everyone as such isn’t only the hallmark of failure but an impossibility. PDP has offended the South with their calculation of fielding another Fulani from the North after eight years. They will lose massive votes in the region. Likewise, APC has offended the Christian population by fielding a Muslim-Muslim ticket. They will lose massive votes from the Christian block. It is this loss from APC and PDP that will constitute Peter Obi’s votes which will not be enough for victory as the traditional party structure continue to wrestle in the difficult terrain to garner at least, the constitutionally required twenty-five percent.
Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu has taken the much desired and expected step to damage Atiku Abubakar’s target in the North with the versatile and politically rooted Kashim Shettima as his running mate. What he needs to do in the interim is to convince the Christian Association of Nigeria and the Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria that the choice was purely based on politics, and not disrespect for the Christian faith, notwithstanding the opposition propaganda geared towards weeping up sentiment for obvious political advantage.
Meanwhile, Christians in Nigeria must be politically tactical to avoid throwing away the baby with the bathwater. They must not reduce the faith to the fate of 2015 when they all bitterly and openly pitched tent with Goodluck Ebele Jonathan to the extent of playing cooked videos of a purported Buhari Islamization agenda In their churches yet lost woefully. It must be understood that such politics that failed in support of an incumbent President from a formidable party in 2015 can not succeed in 2023 with shared sentiment for Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar.
It is expedient to enter into quick political negotiations to now secure the office of the next Senate President and Secretary to Government of the Federation to allay any fear and anxiety that may have been perceived from a Muslim-Muslim ticket as neither the choice of another Northerner after Buhari’s unbroken eight years not a hurriedly put together nomadic political trader can save the day in a Nigeria that requires competence and track record of performance that is inherent in the combination of Tinubu/Shettima.
Library Ruyi can be reach on +234 806 752 4719
